Projected top baby names of 2026

Method: momentum-v1. Source: SSA national baby-name files. Each sex is ranked separately, using the 2025 top 1,000 names. Names outside that group can enter the recorded rankings, so these estimates cannot anticipate every newcomer.

We measure each name’s share of births recorded in the SSA files for that sex and year. We blend its last year of log growth equally with its average annual log growth over three years. Each rate is capped at ±0.25, then multiplied by 0.6 before being carried forward. A missing name uses a share of 5 / 1,700,000.

2026 share = 2025 share × exp(0.6 × (0.5 × capped one-year growth + 0.5 × capped three-year growth))

Ranks sort those shares. Birth counts assume the total births recorded for each sex stay at the 2025 level, so counts are secondary to shares and ranks.

The model was tested by predicting each release from 2015 through 2025 using only earlier data. It retained an average 96.7 of the actual top 100 names per sex, with a mean rank error of 4.22 places among the actual top 100. It chose the leading name correctly in 19 of 22 cases. These are historical results, not guarantees.

Likely ranges use the 80th-percentile absolute rank error for each rank tier in that backtest. They are a guide to past errors, not a calibrated probability for an individual name. The lower end stops at #1.